Meetings between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are taking place in Ukraine. Only a few weeks have passed since he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
The visit is noteworthy as Mr. Modi’s July visit to the Russian capital sparked strong reactions in Kyiv and other Western cities.
Especially harsh was Mr. Zelensky, who expressed his disappointment at witnessing the head of the biggest democracy in the world embrace the most violent criminal in history in Moscow.
Is Mr. Modi in Kiev to appease Mr. Zelensky and other Western dignitaries?
Not totally.
India’s decision to maintain balance in its relations with two rival states or blocs is unsurprising. The nation has benefited greatly from its well-known non-alignment approach to geopolitics for many years.
The primary goal of India’s first-ever prime ministerial visit to Ukraine on Friday is to send a message that, while maintaining close ties with Russia, India would still collaborate closely with the West.
Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, Michael Kugelman, predicts that the journey would further reaffirm India’s strategic independence.
“India is not in the business of appeasing anyone, even Western nations. By reaffirming ties with Kyiv and expressing its worries about the ongoing war, the tour is intended to further Indian interests, he said.
The visit’s timing does, however, indicate that Indian diplomats were aware of the harsh responses the US had received following Mr. Modi’s visit to Moscow.
India has not directly criticising Russia over the war, much to the annoyance of Western powers.
On the other hand, Delhi has emphasized how important it is to preserve national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It has consistently advocated for talks and diplomacy to put an end to the conflict.
Hours after a Russian attack in Ukraine killed at least 41 people, including at a children’s hospital in Kyiv, and sparked a worldwide outrage, Mr. Modi paid a visit to Moscow in July.
While expressing sadness and terror at the deaths of children, the Indian PM refrained from assigning blame to Russia.
It is unlikely that Mr. Modi would stray from this position when he visits Kiev. Because of India’s established connection with Moscow and its reliance on Russian military hardware, the US and other Western countries have come to accept Delhi’s position.
Even though India, the biggest weapons importer in the world, has expanded home manufacturing and diversified its defense import portfolio recently, over 50% of its defense hardware is still purchased from Russia.
Russia was India’s biggest oil supplier last year, thus the country has boosted its oil imports from Moscow to take advantage of the lower rates Moscow is willing to give.
While pleading with India to adopt a more definitive stance on the conflict, the US and its allies have abstained from imposing severe penalties or other forms of coercion.
India is also seen by the West as a counterbalance to China, and they don’t want to disturb that relationship. India is becoming a more attractive market for businesses, since it stands as the world’s fifth biggest economy.
Delhi’s readiness to interact with all parties is something that the West would appreciate, according to Mr. Kugelman.
“Mr. Modi has a strong incentive to signal that Kyiv can still be salvaged and that it’s not leaning so close to Moscow,” the analyst claims.
This is significant because India doesn’t want to sabotage the momentum that has been built up in its ties with the West, especially the US. The US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, has stated that the partnership shouldn’t be “taken for granted”.
India is dependent on the West as well since China, its Asian adversary, and Russia have recently established tight connections.
Although Moscow has long been seen by Delhi as a force that, when called upon, can exert pressure on an ambitious China, it is important to remember this.
Given India’s extensive ties to both the West and Moscow, some media pundits have speculated that Mr. Modi may present himself as a broker of peace.
It seems improbable that he will arrive with a peace strategy, though.
Are the circumstances appropriate and can India truly handle it? India dislikes outside attempts to arbitrate its own problems, most notably those pertaining to Kashmir. Also, I don’t believe Mr. Modi would formally offer mediation unless it was requested by both Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, I don’t think they do at this time, Mr. Kugelman continues.
But Ukraine will nevertheless be happy to have Mr. Modi visit and will use it as a chance to interact with one of Moscow’s closest allies, something it hasn’t done much of since the war started.
But it’s doubtful that Mr. Zelensky will hold back from criticizing Mr. Putin in front of the prime minister of India. Given that he has seen similar circumstances several times in other Western cities, Mr. Modi can accept that.
Given that it has been making accommodations for Delhi’s multilateral approach to geopolitics, Moscow is unlikely to respond to the visit.
Beyond restating its stance against realignment, Delhi hopes to do more with this visit.
Over the past ten years, India has increased its connection with Europe, especially with the neglected areas of Central and Eastern Europe.
Delhi hopes to strengthen its ties with the UK, Italy, Germany, and France—the “big four”—while also increasing its interactions with other European nations.
On this journey, Mr. Modi will also be making his first visit to Poland as the prime minister of India in forty-five years. In July, he also made history as the first Indian prime minister to visit Austria in forty-one years.
According to analysts, this indicates that India is beginning to realize that countries in Central Europe will become more important in geopolitics going forward and that Delhi would benefit from having good connections with them.
Additionally, the Indian administration has reopened trade talks with Europe. With the European Free Trade Association—an intergovernmental organization made up of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland—it has inked a trade and investment agreement.
Thus, Indian diplomats are expected to maintain focus even if there will be a lot of discussion on the war during his visit.
“There is now more agency for Central and Eastern Europe to write their own history and reshape regional geopolitics. Foreign policy analyst C Raja Mohan summarized Mr. Modi’s overarching objective in the Indian Express newspaper: “Mr. Modi’s visit to Warsaw and Kyiv is about recognising that momentous change at the heart of Europe and deepening bilateral political, economic, and security ties with the Central European states.”
